Azerbaijan's economy grew 1.4 % in 2025. For 2026, the forecasts do not agree, and the gap between them is wide enough to change how you build next year's budget.
The Central Bank of Azerbaijan cut its 2026 projection to 1.1 % in May, down from 2.4 % in February. The EBRD and the Asian Development Bank both sit near 2%. That spread is close to a full percentage point, which is the difference between planning for modest expansion and planning for flat domestic demand.
The first quarter gave both camps something to work with. The economy contracted 0.3 % year on year, with oil and gas down 1.2 % and the non-oil sector went up 0.2 %. Inflation averaged 5.7 % in the quarter, close to the upper edge of the 2 to 6 % target band.
For finance teams, the practical response is not to pick a winner among the forecasts. It is to stop budgeting for a single number.
Three moves matter this year. First, replace the point forecast in your plan with two or three scenarios, and attach a specific cost action to each one so the response is agreed before it is needed. Second, pressure tests the non-oil revenue lines separately, because that is where the divergence between forecasters actually sits. Third, model input costs against the upper half of the inflation band rather than the midpoint, and revisit supplier pricing clauses accordingly.
Companies that carry scenario discipline into the planning cycle spend far less time reworking budgets mid-year, and their boards get a clearer view of where the real sensitivity is.
BDO Azerbaijan helps finance teams turn an unsettled macro picture into a plan a board can sign off. Our advisory specialists build scenario models, stress test forecasts and strengthen the assumptions behind your budget.